Let’s Start with Safal Niveshak
Just in case you missed any of this on Safal Niveshak over the last few days and weeks…
- I’m organizing my next Value Investing Workshop in Pune on 1st Feb. 2015. Register here if you wish to join.
- I recently wrote about the Butterfly Effect and the huge impact it has created in my financial life. You may find some value in my experiences.
- Dev of Stable Investor recently interviewed me for his website. You can read the complete interview here .
I have been re-reading Rolf Dobelli’s amazing book, The Art of Thinking Clearly , and I just read about Beginner’s Luck, which Wikipedia defines as – “…phenomenon of novices experiencing disproportionate frequency of success or succeeding against an expert in a given activity.”
With the stock market booming over the past few months, I’m sure a lot of people must be enjoying beginner’s luck, and thus the relevance of this extract from Dobelli’s book….
…how do you tell the difference between beginner’s luck and the first signs of real talent?
There is no clear rule, but these two tips may help: first, if you are much better than others over a long period of time, you can be fairly sure that talent plays a part. (Unfortunately, though, you can never be 100%.) Second, the more people competing, the greater the chances are that one of them will repeatedly strike lucky. Perhaps even you. If, among ten competitors, you establish yourself as a market leader over many years, you can clap yourself on the back. That’s a sure indication of talent. But, if you are top dog among 10 million players (i.e. in the financial markets) in one particular year, you shouldn’t start visualising a Buffettesque financial empire just yet; it’s extremely likely that you have simply been very fortunate.
Watch and wait before you draw any conclusions. Beginner’s luck can be devastating, so guard against misconceptions by treating your theories as a scientist would: try to disprove them.
Stimulate Your Mind
Here’s some amazing content I read in recent times…
- Mohnish Pabrai recently gave a million-dollar advice to a 12-year-old investor.
- A nice post on whether Benjamin Graham is still relevant in 2015.
- My friend and tribesman, Jana Vembunarayanan wrote a wonderful piece on 10 golden nuggets .
- Some amazing thoughts on life, decision making, and wisdom captured in Farnam Street’s best of 2014 .
- Legendary bond king Bill Gross thinks 2015 is the year it will all fall apart .
- Another warning, this one on health – Antibiotic resistance may well be the greatest human crisis we face this century.
Be confident, but avoid arrogance.
Be kind to others, and to yourself.
Stay happy, stay blessed.
Chief Poker – Poke the Box